A good day for the home team as the SPX declined 15.62 points yesterday to close at 2108.58. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2124 on Tuesday and have held the position overnight twice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15766.43 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1649.65 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.56 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.56 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 25, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but if it doesn’t break down sharply and soon, then the odds increase that we’ve already seen the 2015 lows. My original bearish call was made at SPX 2120 and at the time, I forecast that the SPX would reach 2070 (down 50 points) before reaching 2170 (up 50 points). June 15 saw the SPX decline to 2072 intraday, and that fulfilled that forecast. I wrote that night that I expected the market to move a bit higher in the very short term, and that happened as the market advanced 37 points over the next three sessions to complete the retracement of its downside move. The best indicator of a market in transition is if it declines on good news and advances on bad news. If the Greece negotiations keep the EU intact and the market declines anyway, it would be a very bearish indication, or if the Greece negotiations fail to keep the EU intact and the market advances anyway, it would be a very bullish indication. If the opposite of either occurs, then the market will be confirming its range-bound neutrality.
The news-neutral Daily Model is bearish today with 2:1 odds of declining. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short from SPX 2124. Lower the stop to SPX 2110. If we are stopped out, attempt to reestablish the 300% short position at SPX 2121 limit. If that scenario plays out, and we re-short at SPX 2121, use a very tight 7 point protective buy stop on the potential new position
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.