The SPX advanced 48.19 points yesterday to close at 1969.41. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1958 and were stopped out at SPX 1966.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15827.61 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1510.48 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.48 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.48 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 24, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The cyclical bull market that began a few years ago may have ended last Friday, but that’s unclear at present. For a long time, I have written that I expect “to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude” but I do not have enough evidence to say that this is the beginning of a decline of that magnitude. Regardless, I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 8, 2015.) The market is likely to have a big rally – after it tests its lows. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish.
The Daily Model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1966 stop. If the SPX advances (as expected) to 1970 before reaching 1966, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 1968. And for each additional 2 point advance, if applicable, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
On yesterday’s 3:15 intraday update, I said, “on tomorrow’s regular message (at about 3:00 a.m. Eastern time), I’ll be presenting a very interesting presentation of why the next week may be far weaker than would otherwise seem probable.” I had to leave the office at 4:00 and didn’t return until almost 1:00 a.m. I had asked my research assistant to duplicate the presentation (on Excel) so I could verify my work when I returned to the office, but his numbers are different from mine. He arrives at work at 9:00 (6:00 a.m. out here in San Diego), and I will review our worksheets ASAP after he arrives. I’ll present the worksheet early this morning as a “Special Message.” Thanks for your patience.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.