This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, September 20, 2006.
The SPX declined 2.87 points yesterday to close at 1318.31. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as our desired shorting level was not reached.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8936.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 859.38 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.40 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
Two negative stories caused the market to decline yesterday and prevented the SPX from reaching a marginal new high. The Thai military coup reminded traders of the 1997 currency crisis, which began with the devaluation of the Thai baht and then snowballed into a currency crisis in emerging markets around the world. Then, in late morning, internet stocks dropped after Yahoo warned about its quarterly outlook, and the stock tanked. In retrospect, the late day recovery was actually rather impressive.
Today’s main event will be the statement from the Fed this afternoon. I’m rather pleased that the daily model is neutral today, meaning that I don’t have to agonize whether to follow either a bullish or a bearish signal into the uncertainty of a Fed announcement. Continue to stand aside awaiting a better pitch.
PUBLICATION NOTICE: I WILL BE IN TRAVELING ALL THIS WEEK, AND ANY GIVEN DAY’S MESSAGE MAY BE DELAYED. I DON’T EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE, BUT IT “MAY”. IN THE VERY UNLIKELY EVENT THAT I AM UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A MESSAGE PRIOR TO THE OPENING ON ANY DAY, MAINTAIN ANY POSITION AND STOP UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY TO THE CONTRARY.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I expect to email you again well before the opening of tomorrow’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.