The SPX advanced 7.16 points yesterday to close at 1704.76. TOT daily traders went 200% short on Monday at SPX 1701.56 and covered the position on yesterday’s close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13527.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1245.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.86 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 18, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish from SPX 1697.60. I said at the end of August, with the SPX at 1633, “I expect to see SPX 1700 again before 1600, but once that has occurred, I expect to see 1600 before 1800.” I don’t know if SPX 1600 is realistic before 1800, but I believe SPX 1650 will be reached before 1750.
The news neutral daily model is bullish today. However, as you know, today will be anything but “news neutral.”
I rarely consider news when making a recommendation since the part of the Efficient Market Theory that holds that extant market prices most accurately reflect all known information is essentially correct. However, here are my thoughts: (1) I don’t think Bernanke will do anything so radical as to tarnish his legacy – bullish. (2) Whether the “tempering” is modest or non-existent, the market will like it – bullish. (3) On the other hand (there always is another hand, isn’t there), if something is said out of left field, the potential for a major decline is substantial, while if everything that is said is benign, the upside potential seems much more limited – bearish but unlikely.
The news-neutral statistical odds for the SPX for the full session today are 55:45 bullish, and the expected value (used as a statistical term, NOT as a forecast) is for an SPX gain of only 1.5 points. Yawn…
The highest probability trade today is long the Russell and short the DJII, adjusted for relative volatility if you want to stay market neutral, and not adjusted if you want to give the hedge a slightly bullish tone.
My best educated guess is that the morning will see some strength in all market indices, and the afternoon can go anywhere depending on the news.
“Officially,” TOT is going to stand aside, but I’ve given you enough “unofficial” so that you have some reasonable choices if you want to enter the fray.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.