The SPX advanced 14.85 points yesterday to close at 1998.98. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1982 on Monday and were stopped out on the position
yesterday morning at 1981.93 on a 1984 stop. We then went 200% long at SPX 1986.41 at 10:45 yesterday morning and took profits on the close. For the week
so far, TOT daily traders are up 20.86 SPX points, compared to a gain of 13.44 points in the Index itself, despite the annoying whipsaw yesterday.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14198.22 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1540.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.22 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.22 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2014.) Description of current market: The current market can best be described as being bullish,
and despite an Intermediate Term Model reading that is bearish and forecasting the next 5% decline from the 2000 level as being more likely to occur before
the next 5% advance, there is not yet any statistical indication that the bull market has reached its end.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2014.) The September monthly Turov on Timing has first page commentary about this Model. The
Intermediate Term Model is bearish, and the rally since August 8 is long in the tooth. While the SPX has modestly exceeded its previous high, IMHO, its
visit to the stratosphere is not likely to hold, and SPX 1900 (about 100 points down) is more likely to occur first than SPX 2100 (about 100 points up).
On yesterday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities*, I said the following: “As I’m sure is obvious to TOP readers, Wednesday’s activity is likely to
be filled with speculation as to what the Fed might or might not say or do. I’m sure that 50% of the soothsayers will be right! And although ALL models
will take a backseat to the Fed news, the pure statistics indicate that the Russell 2000 Index will be the weakest of the indices tomorrow while the DJII
will be the strongest, both on a relative basis. I don’t have a good handle on what might happen overnight, and so I’m not recommending an overnight
position. For someone who wants to take one position for the full day, I’m pretty comfortable with a short in the IWM. The QQQ is also likely to see some
softness in the early going, but in the afternoon, I’d rather be short the IWM than the QQQ. But once again, the Fed news will “run the show” and without my
crystal ball, I’m as ignorant as the soothsayers as to what will come out of the Fed’s collective mouths or how the market will react.”
As you know, Turov on Timing is strictly an SPX-based service, and the SPX-based daily model is slightly bearish today. HOWEVER, be the model right or wrong
today, the market is more likely to have a 10+ point move than less than 10 point move, which makes any recommendation more dangerous than usual. So let’s
go short, but let’s not go VERY short, and let’s revisit the position before the Fed announcement. TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% short (an
unleveraged position) at the market. Because it’s a small position, I do not recommend a stop at this time.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later in today’s trading session.
* Turov on Overnight Possibilities is a separate service offered only to Turov on Timing subscribers. A one month trial subscription is available ONCE A
YEAR only to TOT subscribers for $97, via www.Paypal.com to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com. Trial subscribers may then subscribe for the balance of 2014 at a
price of ($997*x/365) with x being the remaining days in 2014.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.