The SPX advanced 25.06 points yesterday to close at 1978.09. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short and covered the short on yesterday’s opening.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15937.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1519.16 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.49 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.49 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 24, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The cyclical bull market that began a few years ago may have ended last Friday, but that’s unclear at present. For a long time, I have written that I expect “to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude” but I do not have enough evidence to say that this is the beginning of a decline of that magnitude. Regardless, I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 8, 2015.) The market is likely to have a big rally – after it tests its lows. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish.
I find this fascination over what the Fed might do as fascinating itself since there is not anywhere close to unanimity of thinking about how the market would respond if the Fed did/didn’t raise interest rates! My prediction: Regardless what the Fed does or does not do, the market will fluctuate wildly after the announcement, primarily because of that lack of unanimity of thinking. Unless my models are extremely bullish or bearish going into Thursday, I will stand aside – but today is only Wednesday, and the Daily Model is bearish today. I expect at least part of yesterday’s advance to be reversed today.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1977 stop. If the SPX advances to 1980 before reaching 1977, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 1978. And for each additional 2 point advance, if applicable, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.