This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, October 31, 2007.
The SPX declined 9.96 points yesterday to close at 1531.02. Even though the SPX advances about 80% of the time on the penultimate day of October (not “the penultimate day of the month” as incorrectly reported yesterday), the daily model quite accurately kept us on the sidelines and out of trouble.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 13 of the past 17 weeks, many of those by wide margins, and are well ahead so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10160.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1072.09 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.48 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish.
The most likely trend of the market today will be strength in the morning, followed by weakness in the afternoon, undoubtedly punctuated by extreme volatility immediately after the Fed announcement. As long term TOT subscribers know, the daily model is news-neutral (since we are probabilityists, not clairvoyants), and the Fed meeting will not directly enter into consideration of our trades. It will indirectly enter into consideration, as I will explain in my special mid-morning update.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1532 stop or at SPX 1524 limit, whichever comes first. If you go long, use an 8 point protective sell stop on your position. I will update again between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m. with additional thoughts and advice.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.