This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, October 24, 2007.
The SPX advanced 13.26 points yesterday to close at 1519.59. The daily model was correct in its bullishness, but I was incorrect to suggest as tight a stop as I did, and TOT daily traders were stopped out of our 2 unit position with a loss of 7 points per unit.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 12 of the past 16 weeks, many of those by wide margins, but are somewhat behind the eight ball so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10088.94 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1060.66 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.51 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. Although I don’t expect much more net selling this month, November could get nasty.
The daily model is neutral today. However, if the market can overcome the overnight weakness caused by Amazon’s after the close earnings and rally into mid-morning, it will create an excellent re-shorting opportunity. I’ll have an intraday update by 11am.
Personal note: So far, so good: my home/office is still standing. What I’ll be watching late today is the segment of the Witch Fire that is burning in Rancho Santa Fe. Winds are expected to shift from westerly to easterly on Wednesday night. Hopefully, during the transition period, winds will be calm enough for sufficient aircraft to get in the air and drop enough water for firefighters to put out the Rancho Santa Fe fire. The danger to me is that if that does not occur, and if the wind then shifts to the southeast, that would bring the fire, currently about six miles away, directly towards my home. Until the Rancho Santa Fe fire is under control, I will stay in Coronado. Fun and games….
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m. Eastern time.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.