This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, October 17, 2007.
The SPX declined 10.18 points yesterday to close at 1538.53. TOT daily traders reversed a 300% short position early in the day and then got stopped out of the long fairly soon thereafter. Futures, options, and ETF traders did not fare as badly as their gain on the short was larger and their loss on the long was smaller than our cash based track record indicates. And the only reason I mention that is that the next time the reverse occurs (which might be as early as today given the earnings reports after Tuesday’s close), I would otherwise be sure to get some slightly cranky emails about the cash vs. futures discrepancies!
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 11 of the past 15 weeks and are still ahead of the game so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9936.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1079.60 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.20 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish.
The daily model is again bullish today. As was my recommendation yesterday, “go 300% long at the market. Use a 10 point protective sell stop on the new position. If not stopped, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.” I hope that today’s identical recommendation fares better than yesterday’s did.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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