The SPX advanced 8.04 points yesterday to close at 2129.56. While TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session, TOT Intermediate Term traders were 100% long and had a profitable day.
Tuesday afternoon, about 15 minutes before the close, I emailed to all Turov on Overnight Possibilities* (*subscription information below) subscribers an email which had the following EXACT quotations:
“If Trump wins, the market will likely go down sharply. If Clinton wins, the market will likely rally a bit at the onset and then “sell on the news.””
“For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for an overnight trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s opening) is: Sell short QQQ”
“For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for A ONE day trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s close) is: Sell short QQQ”
“The preliminary odds favor the SPX-based daily model being bearish for the next trading day [Wednesday].”
On Monday afternoon all Turov Investment Group accounts held at Rydex went 100% into the inverse Nasdaq 2x (double leverage short) fund except for Program A (which is not allowed to go short and went long the US Government Long Bond 1.2x fund). On Monday afternoon all Turov Investment Group accounts held at Nationwide went 100% into the inverse Nasdaq 2x (double leverage short) fund except for the Sector Fund Program (which is not allowed to go short and is 100% in the money market fund).
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17013.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1670.63 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.18 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.18 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 9, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, regardless who won the election yesterday (which is still undetermined at press time).
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 9, 2016.) The stock market yesterday approached the upper limits of an important pennant and failed miserably to break through it. ((See chart below, courtesy David Weis (http://weisonwyckoff.com/), from about 24 hours ago, before yesterday’s move through – and then failure below, the downtrend line by the close.)) That, and more importantly IMHO, coupled with significant bearish proprietary data, and confirmed by the election commentary discussed at the beginning of this email, has caused our Intermediate Term model to downtick to bearish. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is bearish.
As was projected in Turov on Overnight Possibilities yesterday afternoon, the daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market. Please note (as described in the “New Readers” report sent to every new subscriber, a duplicate of which is available free upon request) that our cash based recommendation may not be equaled by either futures or ETFs. Trade carefully.
* Turov on Overnight Possibilities is a separate service offered only to Turov on Timing subscribers. It is an email service sent to subscribers at about 3:40 to 3:50 Eastern time each afternoon. All Turov on Overnight Possibilities subscriptions are annual, and for 2016, they run through December 31, 2016 at an annual subscription rate of $997. Since there are 54 days left in 2016, the cost of a subscription through the end of 2016 is at a price of ($997*54/365) or $147. If you would like to subscribe to Turov on Overnight Possibilities for the balance of 2016, please send $147 via www.Paypal.com to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com. Please note that since Turov on Overnight Possibilities is available only to Turov on Timing subscribers, there is no subscription link for it at my website, www.DanielTurov.com
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.