This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 7, 2012.
The SPX advanced 11.13 points yesterday to close at 1428.39. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1421 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13387.11 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 969.46 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.81 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Maintain the 1% protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1435.21. I expect to lower that later this morning.
UNRELATED to the preceding, since for reasons I have explained often in Turov on Timing, I do not attempt to guess the news when making recommendations, I do consider myself a student of history and politics, and I’d like to offer some political thoughts that may be somewhat different from those of the TV commentators:
* The Democratic Party alienates independents when it tries to make the fight one of class warfare. John Edwards started it, and Barack Obama perpetrated it. It seriously harms America. * The current administration alienates Jewish voters by failing to become more specific on certain critical Mid-East policies. Ancient Rome felt “Carthage must be destroyed,” and Jewish voters are equally passionate that “Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped immediately.” * The Republican Party alienates Hispanics when it refuses to come up with an acceptable and workable immigration policy. Whether the Republicans like it or not (and they “not”), the Hispanic vote is one they need, and they won’t get it without some leniency on this issue. * The Republican Party alienates many independent women when it refuses to be realistic about abortion. It’s 2012, and fertile-aged women want the right to choose. I personally know three women who opposed abortion – until they unexpectedly became pregnant – and then, despite heart wrenching guilt, they had abortions. And those stupid comments by two Republican Senatorial candidates about rape…. * Governor Romney alienated a lot of independents by refusing to release his tax returns. I’d like to see a poll of Ohio and Florida voters to see how many independents voted against him for this single reason. * I believe if there had been a true plebiscite of Obama or Romney or “someone else” that “someone else” would have won. The reason there were so many undecided voters for so long is that neither candidate truly won the HEARTS of most voters. It was, “Whom will do less harm?” versus “Whom is less slimy?” * Both parties alienate the public when they fail to negotiate with one another on issues of paramount importance. Both sides must make harsh – really harsh – compromises if we are to solve our economic problems. The divide between the sides is not as great as it was in 1856, but it’s worse than it has been at any time since the Civil War era. It’s time to swallow egos and self-interest and put the country first. One can only hope…..
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.