This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 22, 2006.
The SPX declined 0.70 point Monday and advanced 2.31 points yesterday to close at 1402.81. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1402 on Monday and have held the position since then.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8889.46 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 943.88 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.42 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
As I said on Monday, “The news headlines notwithstanding, the biggest bullish factor facing the market right now is the historically strong market history prior to (and immediately after) Thanksgiving. And the news headlines notwithstanding, the biggest bearish factor facing the market right now is the strong expectation of that historical fact’s continuation, and the risk of selling pressure if the market doesn’t play the tune as expected.”
Also, as was the case in my last message, the daily model, primarily because of the Thanksgiving historical factor, is modestly bullish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Maintain the position and the same 1392 stop. On the upside, if the SPX rallies to 1412, take your profit. So we’re risking 20 cumulative points to make 20 cumulative points – BUT the odds of an advance are much greater than the odds of a decline. If neither limit nor stop is reached, carry the position overnight and into Friday.
IN THE EVENT THAT NEITHER STOP NOR LIMIT IS REACHED TODAY, THE DAILY MODEL IS CERTAIN TO BE BULLISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY, AND WE WILL STAY WITH THE SAME POSITION AND THE SAME STOP AND SAME LIMIT OBJECTIVE THEN. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THERE WILL BE NO ISSUE OF TUROV ON TIMING PRIOR TO FRIDAY’S SESSION. IF THAT IS NOT THE CASE (I.E., IF WE ARE NOT STILL LONG ON TODAY’S CLOSE), THEN THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE OF TUROV ON TIMING FRIDAY MORNING.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again either 6 hours before the beginning of Friday’s session or six hours before the beginning of Monday’s session, depending on the circumstances just described. In either event, have a wonderful holiday!
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.