This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 21, 2012.
The SPX advanced 0.92 point yesterday to close at 1387.81. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1386 and covered the position on the close. The market was down most of the day but rallied near the close, probably in anticipation of a strong pre-Thanksgiving rally. However, with that late afternoon strength comes the probability that the rally will be delayed.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13527.62 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 928.88 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.56 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model, which had been bearish from November 6 through November 14, gaining 61.77 points as the SPX dropped from 1317.26 to 1355.49, turned bullish Thursday, November 14, and that’s where it remains. We’re up 32.32 points on the long side on the current trade.
As implied in the first paragraph, I expect some weakness this morning. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1389 stop or at SPX 1380 limit or at the market at 9:45, whichever of those three events occurs first. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.