This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 19, 2008.
The SPX advanced 8.37 points to close at 859.12 yesterday. But while the daily model was correct in its
bullishness, TOT daily traders were stopped out of our position with a loss. The great volatility of the market
continues to present a whipsaw danger for anyone who uses stops – and most investors are understandably afraid of
taking a position without using a stop.
During the runoff yesterday (4:00 to 4:15 p.m.), futures advanced to about 8 points above fair value. Overnight
though, probably primarily as a result of weakness in foreign markets, those futures have given back all of those
gains and then some.
The Intermediate Term model remains bullish, but if the market is unable to build on yesterday’s gains significantly
today, it will probably revert to bearish.
The directional component of the daily model is bullish today, but the risk component is high enough to default the
overall model to neutral. We will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s
trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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