The SPX advanced 16.19 points yesterday to close at 2180.39. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16904.80 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1721.46 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.82 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.82 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 11, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although market leadership rotation will likely be more pronounced than usual.
The daily model is bearish today, but I do not expect to see a significant selloff. Risk of going short is high, considering the market momentum that has powered the recent rally. In yesterday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I wrote, “I’m quite nervous about going short tomorrow, but the data says “short the market, and the QQQ especially.” I hate to follow emotions — even my own — but in the absence of overnight news, a weak opening “feels” unlikely. I’m not going to go against my data, but I do feel (there’s that word again) more comfortable standing aside. For managed accounts [that have the ability to go short], I am hedging by going long two sector funds that are giving buy signals and shorting QQQ.” For the SPX-based Turov on Timing, standing aside probably makes sense, and we will do so.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.