This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 14, 2012.
The SPX declined 5.50 points yesterday to close at 1374.53. TOT daily traders were 400% short for the session and covered the position on the close. All TIG managed accounts that permit short selling were in an Inverse Fund for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13493.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 915.60 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.74 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although, in the absence of extraordinary negative news, I do not expect a meltdown.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market. Once long, use a stop 8 points below the 9:35 price.
All TIG managed accounts went long either the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 or S&P 500 fund on the close yesterday. I am sometimes asked, “Why, if you went long on the close for managed accounts, didn’t you advise TOT daily traders to also go long on the close?” Good question. The deadline for trading the Rydex funds is 3:55 p.m., five minutes before the close. Often, I don’t know until 3:54 exactly what I’m going to do, and I’m frantically calculating and re-calculating data to make that decision. Once made, there simply is no time to get out an advisory to TOT subscribers prior to the close. And if I put out a preliminary advisory saying one thing and then did the opposite for managed accounts, that is a very, very sticky wicket from a regulatory perspective.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.