The SPX advanced 2.43 points yesterday to close at 2575.26. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as our action point was not reached.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17481.39 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2116.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.26 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.26 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 17, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains neutral. I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet. As described in the October monthly TOT, a non-economic catalyst will most likely be the driver behind such a reversal in the market, and the timing of such a catalyst is not possible at the present time. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs.
I expect that drift higher to continue this morning, but it to fizzle out as the day progresses. Most traders know that the first day of a new month (FDOM) is usually up, BUT that is not true for the first day of November in the 21st Century. So I expect a gap opening higher but little or no follow through. Index ETFs will probably close lower than they open, but I am reluctant to go short on the FDOM, despite the poor November record. Stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 20 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.