This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, November 1, 2006.
The SPX advanced 0.01 point yesterday to close at 1377.94. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1378 on Monday and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8903.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 919.01 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.69 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral and the short term model remains bearish.
Despite the first day of November being traditionally a solidly bullish day, seasonally, surprisingly, the daily model is merely neutral today. Furthermore, the risk component of the model is extremely high, high enough to have pushed the overall model into safe-mode neutrality even if the directional component had been bullish – which it is not. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Maintain the position but raise your stop to a very tight SPX 1377. That will get us out on the very first sign of any weakness. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow where it is once again unlikely that we will get a bullish reading and where we would tighten the stop even further.
It’s too risky to sell short just yet, because of the very strong seasonal factor, but if the component indicators of the model do not improve by week end, some very bearish daily model readings are possible.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.