The SPX advanced 28.02 points yesterday to close at 2076.06. TOT Intermediate Term traders were long for the session. TOT daily traders were 200% short for the session and sustained a 1% loss (times 2 units), giving back 39.74 cumulative points (equal to 28% of last week’s gain).
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16745.81 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1617.13 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.36 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.36 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 25, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model went from bearish to bullish on May 19’s close (SPX 2040.04) and it remains bullish.
The daily model is bearish today, but all of my Index Models are bullish While I continue to research such conflicts, they are unresolved at the present time because of insufficient data. However, since I started monitoring such events on June 4, 2015, there have been 11 similar prior cases. Seven of them saw the market advance and four saw it decline; not statistically sufficient for a conclusion but worthy of caution in following the daily model. Of those 11 cases, the average return was an SPX advance of 7.34 points with a median return of +8.94 points. We will remain on the sidelines because while the extant data is bullish, the universe of events is insufficient to warrant taking risk.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in about 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.