This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday March 5, 2008.
The SPX declined 4.59 points yesterday to close at 1326.75. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. We are currently flat.
Over past 35 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 22 times and underperformed 13 times, a ratio of 1.7 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10101.24 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 867.82 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.64 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. This week has already shown considerable weakness, despite normally favorable early-March seasonality. How much longer the weakness will continue may depend on how much Fed officials keep blabbing.
After trading much lower for most of the session, the market spiked higher on Ambac bailout rumors – again. It reminds me of the late 1960’s when every time a rumor came out that the North Vietnamese were going to sit down and negotiate, the market spiked higher. In the long run, of course, negotiations came to nil. Ambac probably will be “saved” but it won’t help the crisis end any more victoriously than Vietnam did. In my opinion, we are headed for the worst recession since World War II – for reasons I spelled out in detail in Turov on Timing more than two years ago.
The market will trade on rumors today, and I don’t want any part of it. However, my NASDAQ model went rather bullish last night, and I think we’ll see that market do well in the early going. But as an SPX based service, TOT is “officially” neutral today.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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