A really great day for the home team as the SPX declined 29.45 points yesterday to close at 2344.02. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2378 and covered the short on the close yesterday for a cumulative daily gain of 101.94 points. That’s a one-day gain of more points than the SPX has gained since December 8 of last year!
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17147.74 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1885.09 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.10 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.10 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 22, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. HOWEVER, if the SPX advances today and declines again on Thursday, the odds of the Model turning bullish before the week is over is high – but it is not a certainty.
Yesterday, I wrote, “Expect a mixed session today, with the market opening with some modest strength, followed by weakness later in the day.” That’s exactly what happened with the market opening strong and then selling off sharply. Within a few minutes of the opening, the SPX was up to almost 2382. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2378 at 9:55. We then took profits on the position on the close.
There are lots of reasons to be bearish today: (1) the reported North Korean missile launch towards Japan, (2) the breaking of a string of no-1% selloffs, (3) the failure of Congressional Republicans to unify, (3) high risk of a black swan event as measured by the SKEW Index, (4) the weakness in financial stocks, which are often market leaders, (5) the trouble with passing a replacement to Obamacare, and for good measure, the significant damage done to chart patterns. Nevertheless, after some carryover weakness from yesterday, I expect the market to do exactly the opposite as yesterday – a soft opening followed by a strong counter rally. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2346 stop. If, as expected, the SPX declines to 2340 before reaching 2346, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2344, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out prior to 3:00, at 3:00, if the sell stop is more than 5 points below the 3:00 price, raise the sell stop to 5 points below the 3:00 price. If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close. Furthermore, if the SPX is up on the day, as expected, go 200% short on the close and carry the position overnight and into Thursday when I tentatively expect a resumption of Tuesday’s selling.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.