This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, March 12, 2008.
The SPX advanced 47.28 points yesterday to close at 1320.65. TOT daily traders went 400% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.
Over the past 36 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 22 times and underperformed 14 times and are ahead so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10178.96 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 861.72 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.81 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. I’ve been saying for the past two days “the odds are high that the coming week will see a solid rally,” and yesterday looks like its beginning.
Also yesterday I said, “with a very high probability of being accurate, I make the following two comments: (1) We are nowhere close to the end of this bear market, and (2) We are very close to the end of this leg of it. The springback to higher prices will probably come this week, and despite the 20 point decline yesterday, this week will probably end higher than it began.” I also said, “I expect upside fireworks either today or tomorrow.” I’m quite comfortable with both comments, the second one already having come to fruition.
The daily model is again bullish today, although don’t expect a repeat of Tuesday! TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% long. With the SPX at the 1320 level, I would expect a pause before the uptrend resumes. Raise your stop to SPX 1307. On the upside, if the SPX gets to 1328, raise your stop to SPX 1312, and if it gets to 1334, take your profit. If neither stop nor limit is touched, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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