A very good day indeed for the home team as the SPX declined 35.27 points yesterday to close at 2044.16. TOT daily traders went 300% short on the opening and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15275.46 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1585.23 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.64 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.64 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 10, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Preliminarily, I expect to see the market decline by about 10% from the current SPX 2080 level by the end of Spring, and then recover those losses by the end of the year.
I expect the selling to have a one day respite today. The daily model is bullish and blue chips should lead the way modestly higher. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2045 stop. If the SPX declines to 2040 before advancing to 2045, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2042. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, sell the position at the market as it is a CERTAINTY that the daily model will be bearish on Thursday. Furthermore, in anticipation of a further selloff on Thursday, on the close today, go 100% short and carry that short position overnight and into Thursday.
Turov on Overnight Possibilities Footnote and Unabashed Sales Pitch: 100K TOT traders who went 200% short the SPX ETF (SPY) on the opening yesterday had a profit of 1.67%. Nice. 100K TOP traders who went 200% short the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) on the close Monday had a profit of 3.62%. Nicer. The difference, 1.95%, on a 100K account is obviously, $1950 – or more than twice the ANNUAL subscription cost of a Turov on Overnight Possibilities subscription. To subscribe to TOP for a prorated $799 for the balance of 2015, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.