The SPX advanced 11.86 points yesterday to close at 2096.29. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2085 and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15721.05 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1637.36 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.60 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 17, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. My original bearish call was made at SPX 2120 and at the time, I forecast that the SPX would reach 2070 (down 50 points) before reaching 2170 (up 50 points). June 15 saw the SPX decline to 2072, and that fulfilled that forecast. I wrote on the evening prior to June 16 that I expected the market to move a bit higher in the very short term, and that happened on June 16 as the market advanced almost 12 points. Now I expect some additional selling into month end, albeit with about three up days out of the ten remaining in the month of June. However, I do NOT see this as the beginning of a new bear market, and I would not be surprised to see the market end the year little changed from current levels (sans significant news).
The Daily Model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2096 stop.
If the SPX advances to 2100 before selling down to 2096, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 2098. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into Thursday unless contraindicated by an intraday update.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.