This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, June 16, 2010.
A decent day for the home team, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 25.6 points yesterday to close at 1115.23. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1097, then covered that short and went 300% long at SPX 1101.14, and then took our profit on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12025.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 656.30 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.32 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then) but the current cyclical bull market probably has further to go before topping out, most likely in 2012, but not necessarily at significantly higher levels than at present.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. Preliminarily, and changing yesterday’s comment, I think the low for 2010 has already been reached, and after some profit taking from yesterday’s advance (at which time, the Intermediate Term Model is likely to give a buy signal) , the market is likely to move higher.
The most likely pattern for today is weakness in the morning and strength in the afternoon. The second most likely pattern for today is strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon. The least likely events would be for the market to be either strong all day or weak all day.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short (i.e.; at the first sign of weakness) at SPX 1114 stop, but no less than SPX 1111 (in other words, 1114 stop; 1111 limit). If you go short, use a buy stop at SPX 1125.
I’ll have an intraday update at 10:50.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 10:50 – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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