This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, June 14, 2006.
The SPX declined 12.71 points yesterday to close at 1223.69. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8857.92 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 764.76 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.
My indicators are looking nothing like they looked in early Year 2000, and while I believe we have begun the second down-leg of the 2000-2020??? bear market, I do not see evidence that we are on the precipice of any meltdown right not. Quite the contrary, as the market seems more likely to have a sharp snapback rally at any moment. Of course, being as nervous as the market is, any major news event (for example, a hedge fund collapse, a cutoff of oil, etc.) could result in a selling panic. But to invest based on “coulds” is a loser’s game. Investing based on probabilities, rather than nervous possibilities, is what has enabled TOT daily traders to outperform the SPX by more than ten fold in the past 13 years.
The daily model is modestly bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long into any strength at SPX 1225 stop. Do not overtrade in this environment – no more than 200%! If you go long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 1217. On the upside, if the SPX rises to 1235, raise your stop to a breakeven SPX 1225, and for each additional 5 point advance, raise your stop by an equivalent 5 points. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.