This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, June 10, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 3.29 points yesterday to close at 942.43. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11023.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 483.50 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.80 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
On yesterday’s hotline I said that the session would be unlikely “to be dramatic,” and that was indeed the case. Today should see modestly higher prices. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 944 stop or at SPX 940 limit, whichever comes first. We’re not going to be looking for a big gain, and we’re not going to be taking much risk. The odds are about 3:2 that the market will advance 5 points before it declines 5 points, and that’s the play we’ll make. Once you go long, use a 5 point protective sell stop on the downside. On the upside, if the SPX rallies 5 points, take your profit. In the unlikely event that neither stop nor limit is reached, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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