The SPX advanced 7.22 points yesterday to close at 2477.13. Contentiously, TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and sold the position at SPX 2477. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17345.64 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2018.20 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is neutral today, not because of blandness but because of strong bullish AND strong bearish components of the model. The Index models are modestly bearish for the period from yesterday’s close through 10:45 this morning, but from 10:45 through the close, the Index models are clearly bullish. Complicating the situation is the 2:00 release today of the Fed decision and minutes, Overall, I expect a small advance today, subject to what comes out of the Fed. I see no reason to risk capital, and I recommend standing aside for the time being. That may change after the Fed announcement.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today IF there is a change of recommendation; otherwise about 10:00 Eastern time tonight.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.