This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, January 25, 2012.
A very good day for the home team as we had a profit on both the short side and the long side of the market. The SPX declined 1.37 points yesterday to close at 1314.63. TOT daily traders went 400% short near the high of the day on Monday at SPX 1320 and covered the short position nine minutes into Tuesday’s trading session at SPX 1307. A little later, we went 200% long at SPX 1311.76 and took profits on that position on the SPX 1314.63 close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13097.54 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 855.70 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.31 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but I do not anticipate a meltdown.
After the close Tuesday, Apple Inc. (AAPL) announced blowout earnings, and the stock advanced a whopping 33 points in aftermarket trading. I believe that makes its capitalization the largest of any American corporation (if not, it’s second only to Exxon). It remains to be seen what the responses will be overnight to further analysis of the AAPL report, and to the President’s State of the Union message, and to any news that might result from Greek debt negotiations. Under such circumstances, no one’s “models,” mine included, are going to make any difference. Stand aside.
Miscellaneous note: My bond model is showing tremendous short term potential for the 30 Year US Treasury Bond. In the absence of a Greek default, it looks attractive. If there is a default, the potential is far greater.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again six hours before the start of Thursday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.