This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, January 20, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 14.20 points yesterday to close at 1150.23. TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1146.74 on Thursday and covered on yesterday’s close.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest later this year, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
While the advise to “Buy on the rumor; sell on the news” is well known and has validity, yesterday’s advance on speculation that the Republican would win in Massachusetts was not based on the expectation of a win but rather the hope of a win – in other words, it’s unlikely the solidity of the win was fully factored in. But now, with the win assured, futures are soft, despite the market having vaulted the 1150 line. Odd action, to be sure.
Anyway, unrelated to news, the daily model is neutral today, and it seems like a really good day to stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours –or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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