This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, January 11, 2012.
The SPX advanced 11.38 points yesterday to close at 1292.08. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13021.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 833.15 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.63 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but this rally may have a bit more to go before the market turns lower. But even there, I’m not looking for a particularly large decline anytime soon.
On yesterday’s message I said, “In the absence of unknown and unknowable news [the market is] unlikely to move much,” but there was news – specifically the Fitch announcement regarding French credit which invigorated the European markets, and then the Alcoa comments here which kept the market from selling off much from opening levels. However, more than 100% of the day’s gain was on the opening, and that is more an indication of distribution than of accumulation.
Today, we have a similar situation: In the absence of unknown and unknowable news, the market is unlikely to move much. As we did yesterday, for both TOT and all managed accounts, we will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.