This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, February 8, 2012.
The SPX advanced 2.72 points yesterday to close at 1347.05. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short and were stopped out late in the day. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13064.89 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 888.12 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.71 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral as seasonality and momentum are positive, but many indicators are overbought.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1346 stop. If the SPX rises to 1350 before reaching 1346, raise your entry sell stop to SPX 1348. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise your entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position until 10:45 a.m. At 10:45 (see the small print below), if the SPX is up on the day (regardless of whether our position is profitable or unprofitable), cover the short and move to the sidelines.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again sometime during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.