The SPX advanced 13.31 points yesterday to close at 1755.20. On paper, at least, TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1743.82 and took a 5 point profit on the position yesterday at SPX 1748.82 – but in reality it was an anomaly that couldn’t be done with real money. We then went 200% short at 10:45 a.m. at SPX 1751.15 and took a loss on that position on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13832.30 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1296.27 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.67 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 10.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. In an advancing market it will therefore almost always decline, and in a declining market it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 13, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000, after probably hitting new (temporary) highs in 2014. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President to have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 4, 2014) The Intermediate Term Model is bullish. So far, the current Intermediate Term Model reading has been disappointing.
In yesterday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I said, “Only once before, to the best of my recollection, have two ESSENTIAL indicators given diametrically opposed signals for tomorrow. Candidly, I
don’t know what the market will do, either overnight or for any specific time period. As I wrote many years ago, ‘Ignorance is not knowing something. Stupidity is not admitting ignorance.’ I declare my ignorance regarding tomorrow; stand aside.”
That advice stands.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 22 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.