This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, February 27, 2008.
The SPX advanced 9.49 points yesterday to close at 1381.29. TOT daily traders had been advised to “300% long at SPX 1373 stop or at SPX 1363 limit, whichever comes first.” Unfortunately, the SPX declined only to 1363.29, so we ended up going long at SPX 1373. We have held the position overnight and into today.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 21 of the past 34 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10057.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 922.36 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.90 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish, although it’s a weak signal. The market continues to respond to the news of the moment more than usual as it has very little internal direction of its own. I expect the market to move up for another day or two and then get soft near the end of the month and the beginning of March – contrary to “normal” seasonality.
In the February 7 Turov on Timing, I said, “Expect to see the 1400 level challenged again this month.” I expect to then see that challenge fail, and the market sell off again. But expect to see that level approached either today or tomorrow.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Raise your stop to a breakeven SPX 1373. If the SPX rallies to 1388, raise your stop to SPX 1378. If the SPX rallies to 1393, raise your stop to SPX 1383. And if the SPX rallies to 1398, take your profit. If not stopped out, and if SPX 1398 is not reached, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.