A rotten day for the home team as the SPX declined 17.43 points yesterday to close at SPX 1184.16. TOT daily traders took a 10 point loss on 4 units as soaring oil prices and a collapsing dollar spooked the market. We are currently on the sidelines.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8459.94 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 725.23 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bullish. However, yesterday’s decline did do damage to the short term model, and it is on precarious ground.
The daily model is neutral today, in response primarily to the failure of yesterday’s call (although with the magnitude of yesterday’s oil spike, combined with the Korean central bank news, it’s hard to know if it really was a model failure or just bad luck). In either event, the daily model does an automatic reconnoiter the following day when certain components of the model indicate a very high probability of a market move in one direction (as was the case yesterday) and then the market moves in the opposite direction. It is a safety feature that has served us well.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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