This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, February 20, 2008.
The SPX declined 1.21 points yesterday to close at 1348.78. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed – absolutely nothing.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 21 of the past 33 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10045.23 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 889.85 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.29 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish.
Yesterday, I stated, “the market is responding to the news of the moment more than usual as it has very little internal direction of its own.” Wow! Yesterday was surely a case in point: The market went up a full percent on the Northern Rock news and then went down that full point on the oil news.
The directional component of the daily model is bullish today. The risk component of the model is just on the cusp of being high enough to push the overall model into neutral territory. However, if the market declines or is flat in the early going accompanied by positive divergence on my intraday model, I would take a gander on the long side – but not until and unless that occurs. Stand aside for now, and I’ll have an intraday update at between 10:45 and 11 am.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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