This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, February 1, 2012.
The SPX declined 0.61 point yesterday to close at 1312.40. TOT daily traders had a 2.65 point loss on three units. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13083.31 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 853.47 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.33 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral as seasonality and momentum are positive, but many indicators are overbought.
While the market (especially NASDAQ will likely open lower because of the after-the-close Amazon.com earnings report, the SPX should do pretty well today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1314 stop. If the SPX declines to 1310 before reaching 1314, lower your entry buy stop to SPX 1312. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower your entry stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again at 3:50 p.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.