This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, December 9, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 11.31 points yesterday to close at 1091.94. TOT daily traders went 400% long on Monday and were stopped out with a 1% loss per unit yesterday.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11180.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 633.01 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 17.66 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but not by much. There’s a pretty good chance that the Model will reverse itself within a week.
The market opened quite weakly yesterday on a confluence of negative news, including soft European markets based on Dubai fears, a downgrading of Greece’s national debt, negative projections from Dow components MMM and McDonalds, and softness in commodities. All of the day’s damage occurred during the first 75 minutes of trading.
The daily model is neutral today, with a slight upside bias in the morning and a slight downside bias in the afternoon. We will stand aside unless there is a significant divergence in my intraday model – in which case I will issue an interim report.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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