This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, December 6, 2006.
The SPX advanced 5.64 points yesterday to close at 1414.76. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. Virtually all of the day’s advance occurred between 10:00 a.m. and 10:20 a.m. in response to a report from the Institute of Supply Management which said its services index in October unexpectedly rose to 58.9 — the highest level since May. “Since the data lent further proof that the overall economy is not slowing too much, investors used the report as a means to offset some recent concerns about the manufacturing sector not providing much boost to economic growth in the months ahead.” So said the pundits. If they’re right, then without the ISM news, the market would have been flat on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8867.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 955.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.28 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
While the daily model is again neutral today, if the SPX advances today, overextending itself to the max, the daily model is certain to be bearish tomorrow – possibly quite bearish. TOT daily traders are advised to stand aside during the day today but to go 200% short on the close today if the SPX is closing up on the session. If the SPX is not closing in positive territory as we reach the close, then do not take the short position. If the SPX is up today, and depending on the precise reading of the daily model Thursday, we very well may increase that short position Thursday morning.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.