This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 30, 2006.
The SPX advanced 2.50 points yesterday to close at 1304.28. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8931.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 845.35 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.57 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac reports that the penultimate day of August has been down in 10 of the past 11 years (including 2005, not shown in the 2006 Almanac). Nevertheless, the daily model is neutral today, largely a function of yesterday’s late day strength on excellent breadth and improving volume. We will stand aside – watching with rapt attention, to be sure – but standing aside, nevertheless. The risk of going short is simply too high, and the justification for going long is simply too weak.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.