The SPX declined 13.8 points yesterday to close at 2157.03. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16744.87 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1698.10 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.86 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however we have seen at least a pause in the advance. For several days now, I’ve been saying, “At this point, either the market will crack soon or the bulls will regain control. The longer the market doesn’t crack, the greater the odds that it won’t.” Well, it gave the impression of “cracking” yesterday, but I don’t think it did. Charts of the major indices (with Nasdaq being on the cusp) look awful, some so-called support levels were broken, and most MACD comparisons with stock prices have looked awful for several days now. Nevertheless, despite the dual catalysts of the Japanese stimulus and the impact it had on European banks before the opening yesterday, I see no real evidence of a “crack.”. If today’s 1/2% SPX and DJII selloffs scare on-the-fence bulls into selling more tomorrow morning, that will likely be the setup for a decent one day rally. So while the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, an advance today is expected, and the Model could reverse if the market doesn’t have a real “crack” soon.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2158 stop. If the SPX declines to 2154 before advancing toe 2158, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2156, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.