This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 3, 2011.
The SPX declined 32.89 points yesterday to close at 1254.05. TOT daily traders took a 1% loss on 4 units. Not a good day for either the market or for us.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12417.88 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 795.12 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.62 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
I’m almost embarrassed to say so, but the Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
While markets can continue to decline without reference to how many consecutive days in the past they have declined, this particular market decline is due for at least a one day reversal today.
For those interested in an history, yesterday was only the third time EVER that the S&P 500 futures closed down for eight consecutive sessions. The only other two were September 11, 1991 and October 10, 2008. In both of those cases, the market rallied immediately – and then moved lower. Although two cases do not constitute a precedent, preliminarily, that is what I expect now. Please note, however, that the preceding is mentioned for interest value only, and such statistically insignificant historical references do not play any part in any of my models.
I want to go long at the first sign of strength. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1255 stop. If the SPX declines to 1252 before reaching 1255, lower that entry buy stop to SPX 1254. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower that entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will have an intraday update sometime during the trading session.
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