This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, April 25, 2012.
The SPX advanced 5.03 points yesterday to close at 1371.97. TOT daily traders went 100% long at SPX 1366.97 and took a small profit at SPX 1369. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13240.86 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 913.04 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.50 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it will end in late 2012 or early 2013), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. Two days ago, I said, “The rest of this week will likely be strong, with a possibility of seeing the SPX approach 1400 again.” That still remains a possibility, but candidly, I don’t think we’ll see the market move that far this week.
Because of the Apple earnings blockbuster, it would be shocking if the market didn’t gap open strongly this morning. The $64,000 question is, “By how much?” I’d like to short into strength, and I think the market will open at or near the high of the day. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market at 9:34 a.m.. Once short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on the position. If the SPX declines 5 points from your entry level, lower the stop by an equivalent 5 points. If the SPX declines 10 points from your entry level, take your profit. If still short as we approach the close, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.