The SPX declined 15.78 points yesterday to close at 1129.42. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines and missed the carnage.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8359.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 670.49 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
The daily model reading was correctly bearish yesterday, but I had advised standing aside unless “the SPX rallie(d) about a half dozen points or so.” On the pre-opening Globex session, the futures had rallied by that amount, which would have made for a great short, but the cash market, on which all our recommendations are made, never came close.
Overnight now (Tuesday night), the S&P futures sold off several points on the Intel news, and then rallied back to even and then up a few points when the President announced he would not delay the power turnover in Iraq past the scheduled date, and as I write this, the futures are up a fraction of a point.
The daily model is again bearish today, but the CPI is being announced before the NYSE opening today, and if there’s any surprise, the market will certainly respond accordingly. I will be carefully monitoring how the market reacts (which is far more important for traders than what the actualy news is!), and if there is any significant divergence on my intraday model, I will consider an intraday update.
While not a recommendation – which are always based on the daily model readings which are not known until the day is close at hand – if we have a selloff to the SPX 1120 level or lower today, followed by stabilization, we could have a decent rally tomorrow and Friday, offering another short selling opportunity as we head into month end.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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