The SPX declined .26 point yesterday to close at 2126.41. It was the fifth consecutive declining day, slightly but not overwhelmingly unusual in a bull market. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17091.73 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1667.48 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.25 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.25 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.) (A part of this paragraph was incorrect on yesterday’s message, and it has been corrected today.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 30, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, regardless who wins the election next week.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 17, 2016.) The Intermediate Term model remains bearish. The risk of a major selloff seems less than the super-bears believe, in my opinion.
The most similar day to Tuesday, November 1, 2016 (today) was Tuesday, November 1, 2011 when the SPX fell 35.04 points. That was a 2.8% decline. A decline of that large a percentage based on today’s SPX would be equal to about 60 S&P points. The 2011 decline was mostly news related, with the vast majority of the decline occurring on the opening in response to fears of the Greek response to an EU bailout. How significant the relationship is between Tuesday, November 1, 2011 and today is difficult to evaluate. However, it should be noted that while the first day of a new month is traditionally positive, the first day of November is mediocre, and when that day falls on a Tuesday, it actually is slightly negative, historically. I see no particular imperative to go either long or short, and standing aside is better than gambling on either the long or short side.
The daily model is neutral today, although it is worth noting that futures are up about 0.4% overnight. My best guess is that markets will move lower as the day wears on, but that is not a forecast, and I do not invest client’s money on guesses. As relates to SPX-based Turov on Timing, my advice is to stand aside today. Most Turov Investment Group managed accounts are between 50% and 100% in the Precious Metals fund (as they were yesterday when the fund gained almost 3%).
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in about 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.