The September monthly report is attached to this message.
Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 5.2 points Friday to close at 1632.97. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1638 and took profits on the close. Also, on the close, TOT daily traders went 200% long and have carried that position over the weekend and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13438.03 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1174.04 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.45 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model has upticked from neutral to bullish. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is now bullish. I expect to see SPX 1700 again before 1600, but once that has occurred, I expect to see 1600 before 1800. But for now, put me down as an intermediate term bull.
On Friday, I said, “I don’t think there is much downside weekend risk” (re Syria), and the President’s abrupt weekend turn of events makes that prediction all the more true. As background, I agree with the Associated Press’s commentary, as follows: “For more than a week, the White House had been barreling toward imminent military action against Syria. But President Barack Obama’s abrupt decision to instead ask Congress for permission left him with a high-risk gamble that could devastate his credibility if no action is ultimately taken in response to a deadly chemical weapons attack that crossed his own red line. The stunning reversal also raises questions about the president’s decisiveness and could embolden leaders in Syria, Iran, North Korea and elsewhere, leaving them with the impression of a U.S. president unwilling to back up his words with actions. The president, in a hastily announced statement Saturday in the White House Rose Garden, argued that he did in fact have the power to act on his own. But faced with the prospect of taking action opposed by many Americans, the commander in chief tried to shift the burden and instead round up partners on Capitol Hill to share in that responsibility. ‘While I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course, and our actions will be even more effective,’ Obama said. ‘We should have this debate.’ The consequences for Obama’s turnabout could be sweeping, both at home and abroad. If Congress votes against military action, it would mark a humiliating defeat for a second-term president already fighting to stay relevant and wield influence in Washington. It could also weaken his standing internationally at a time when there are already growing questions about the scope of American influence, particularly in the Arab world. But the White House sees potentially positive political implications in punting the strike decision to Congress. Obama could make good on the promises he made as a senator and presidential candidate, when he called for restraint and congressional consultation by White House’s seeking military force. And with the American public weary of war and many opposed to even modest military action against Syria, Obama could share with Congress the burden of launching an attack.”
While historically, September is not a good month for bulls, the first day of September has been strong usually. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Double that by going another 200% long at SPX 1638 or better.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later this morning.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.