An extremely good day for the home team as the SPX declined 49.57 points yesterday to close at 1881.77. TOT daily traders went 300% short on the opening and took profits on the close. Furthermore, all Turov Investment Group managed accounts that permit the use of inverse funds were 200% in the inverse Nasdaq 100 fund (as of Friday’s close) which was UP 5.74% on the day. Shortly before Friday’s close, Turov on Overnight Possibilities had also recommended shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, on Friday’s close, and TOP traders benefitted from that recommendation. As I’ve often indicated, the main advantage of Turov on Overnight Possibilities is that it enables traders to participate in early morning gaps; the second advantage is that it uses indices other than just the SPX.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16049.91 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1422.84 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.28 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +11.28 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 24, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The cyclical bull market that began a few years ago may have ended last Friday, but that’s unclear at present. For a long time, I have written that I expect “to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude” but I do not have enough evidence to say that this is the beginning of a decline of that magnitude. Regardless, I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 29, 2015.) The SPX has declined by over 100 points over the past eight trading sessions, and it’s due for a breather. The Intermediate Term model has upticked from bearish to bullish, and a rally of 5% to 7% is likely before the selling resumes. Repeating, the Intermediate Term model is now bullish.
The market is likely to begin the day with a resumption of yesterday’s weakness and then turn around. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1883 stop. If the SPX declines to 1878 before reaching 1883, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 1880 and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.