This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, September 12, 2006.
The SPX advanced a negligible 0.62 point yesterday to close at 1299.54. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1298 on Thursday and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8947.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 840.61 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.64 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
Yesterday’s big story was the decline in gold. To quote the Associated Press, “The easing of tension between the United Nations and Iran has deflated precious metals prices.” If that’s the real catalyst for the decline, then “Good luck!” Iran’s offer has as much credibility as Hitler’s did in 1938, and any gold decline will be very short lived, indeed. Furthermore, the decline in oil is probably temporary as we are depleting reserves faster than we are finding new ones, and the future of oil prices is much higher – unless the housing collapse causes so much of a recession that demand declines substantially. Either scenario is bearish for stocks. But that’s the long term perspective, and over the short term, volatility is about the only “given.”
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Maintain your protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1303. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.