The SPX declined 14.38 points yesterday to close at 1676.12. TOT daily traders went 300% short on the opening and covered the short on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13481.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1217.19 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.08 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 7, 2013) The news-neutral Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. The purely statistical and news-neutral odds are that the recent decline from the highs is about over, and the market will challenge those highs sooner rather than later. However, it is obvious that current uncertainty regarding the hot air in Washington will continue to dominate the market until that uncertainty is resolved, one way or another.
I find it humorous (sort of) that Bloomberg TV’s news ticker has been saying all day that Moody’s CEO “sees very low risk of US default.” Wasn’t Moody’s the same organization that kept saying that collateralized mortgage bonds were worth a AAA rating? (Hint: The answer is “yes.”) I’m simply amazed at prognosticators who just pull opinions out of their ass without doing any statistical analysis to evaluate their predictions. In my opinion, nobody has a clue as to what the Senate and the House and the President are going to do in a week – certainly not the CEO of Moody’s and perhaps not even the legislators themselves.
The news-neutral daily model is bullish today, and after an expected early continuation of yesterday’s late day selloff, I expect to see the market work its way higher. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the first sign of decent strength; i.e. SPX 1680 stop. If the SPX declines to 1674 before advancing to 1680, lower your entry buy stop to SPX 1676. And for each further 2 point decline, lower your entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go long, use a protective sell stop 10 points below your entry level.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading session.
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