This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, October 30, 2007.
The SPX advanced 5.70 points yesterday to close at 1540.98. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1522.17 on Friday and took profits at SPX 1540 yesterday. We are currently flat.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 13 of the past 17 weeks, many of those by wide margins, and are ahead so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10160.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1082.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.39 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish.
The SPX advances about 80% of the time on the penultimate day of the month. However, we will not be going long today.
The market badly needs some softness today, and especially this morning, in order to be able to healthily advance for the balance of the week. As I write this, S&P futures are down about 4 points below fair value. That’s good. If the market turns around this morning too quickly, it would be quite negative for the very short term, and indeed, I would want to go short. On the other hand, if it stays soft, then the component indicators of the daily model are more balanced, and staying sidelined today (but almost certainly going long tomorrow) will most likely be our course of action. And if that sounds confusing, rest assured that that’s the simple version of what’s really going on. In any event, do nothing for the time being, and I will have an intraday update between 10:45 and 10:55 a.m. Eastern time today.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.